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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."